The Future of Transportation, My Prediction
Jun0
Gas prices have been on the rise for a long time now. This year they continue to break record prices at the gas stations. We, as a nation, have been lucky and the average person didn’t have to think about how much gas they were using on a daily basis. This has begun to change however, and more people are starting to think about how they are using gas. People just can’t afford it.
This rise in expenses can be felt from increasing prices of inventory in stores because of shipping costs to people taking more “local” vacations. And this I think will have a huge impact on how we will use transportation in the coming years. And leads me to a few predictions. Other countries, the UK and Japan have never really had good prices, at least as far back as I can remember.
The UK pays over $5 per gallon, and thats not something you take lightly. Other this other countries have already adapted to these gas prices and as such have already come up with ways to cut the prices, at least for the average person. It is these places that we need to look for ideas and guidance for what we should do. It is true that research is being done on alternative fuels, but does that mean that we should stop there? No. We should be looking at ways to cut things with current technology.
What do I mean by this? I can really say that I can see a big comeback in trains and buses. Why? You spend less on gas. Sure your still using gas, however you are getting more per person that you ever could in a single car.
I really think that we will start to see both passenger and freight train traffic take a huge leap in the coming years. Is it cheaper to ship things across the country by individual truck, or is it cheaper to put in on a freight train and carry a lot more than any single truck could. Will trucks will be used? Yes. But not over long distances. Just for shorter more local transportation. An example would be to transport the goods from the train depot to the store. The same thing will apply with passenger trains. Cars will still be used, but people wishing to drive from say New York to Florida would do it by train instead.
Now when I say passenger train, I’m not talking about your average 1920’s train. I’m talking about trains similar to Japan’s. The bullet train. Why do I think that the bullet train will be needed to get even more people to use it? Because it offers a double bonus. Not only would it be cheaper than driving somewhere. It will over huge advantage of being extremely fast. People would be getting where they want to go, quicker. Would it be expensive to build? Probably. Would it make a lot of money? I believe so. But just like freight trains, you can’t support your infrastructure on just trains. Buses, taxi’s, and car rentals will play a major role. Why? Because Buses will be need to get to the towns that a bullet train wouldn’t stop at. Sure you can get really close to where you wanna go, but most of the time you would get off the train and catch a bus over to another town. Now, even if bullet trains are not built, I see a rise in passenger train usage. Just because of money saved on gas.
Freight trains have also become an evolution of sorts. CSX, yes it’s still around and doing very well business wise, has been constantly improving its engine technology. Their engines are now aimed at getting the most money out of a gallon of gas as possible, and they have done an excellent job at doing so. I can’t quite remember the exact number of miles per gallon they get, but it was something very respectable. This is what puts them ahead in the coming years. They don’t have a LOT of “gas efficient” engines. They have one ”gas efficient” engine pulling a lot of cargo.
Moving on to local transportation. I have already noticed an increase in bicycle usage around smaller areas in recent years and this will only continue to grow. But what about the bigger cities? What about areas where its not reasonable for people to bike because of the distance. If your going to work, you can’t go to work all sweaty. What’s left is motorcycles and mopeds. They cut down on usage drastically. This is already a huge think in Europe and I do believe that it will happen here, and soon. For longer distances, small city to small city, we should look at buses, where trains are not available. Taxi’s should also start to play a big role in the future. Not because of better gas usage, but because people are taking trains and such, they will need a way to get around if it’s to far to walk. Yes, I said walk. It is the biggest thing that has got to change in the coming years. We have to stop being lazy and using our cars to go a few blocks down the road, and just walk the distance.
These thoughts are just some of the things I’ve been thinking about. I could be wrong, I could be right. But only time will tell. I would however like to see what other people think about it and what they think will happen, so leave some comments. Not in 25-50 years, but in the next 5-25. It’s not going to be a quick change by any means, and not an easy one. People will have to rethink how they wanna get to where they are going.